"Ghost Fleet" author says book depicts plausible scenario of cyber war with China, Russia

Peter W. Singer, co-author of the techno-thriller "Ghost Fleet" and a senior fellow at the New America Foundation, warned at a National Press Club appearance Thursday that research for his book has him worried that China's military "is building better and moving faster" than official Washington realizes.

Speaking at an American Legion Post 20 event open to all NPC members, Singer said he fears the U.S. is building overly complex and costly weapons that could be outclassed by potential foes, especially China.

Singer said he and co-author August Cole, an Atlantic Council senior fellow, were inspired by Tom Clancy's first blockbuster, "The Hunt for Red October," which like their novel draws heavily on accurate descriptions of military capacities. "Ghost Fleet" envisions a war pitting the U.S. against China and Russia with battles that include two new realms: Outer space and cyber space.

The just-released book is recommended reading for U.S. and allied forces. Although censorship prevents publication in China, Singer suspects it will be read by that country's political and military class.

While some pundits think war between great powers is no longer possible, Singer noted that NATO is at its highest alert since the 1980s, that Russia has declared NATO to be the top threat to the Russian Federation and that a government-controlled newspaper in China has declared war with the U.S. inevitable unless the U.S. changes policies. And economic ties are no guarantor of peace, as shown by World War I.

Singer said post-Cold War research shows that the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. came close to nuclear war more often than ever suspected, including during a 1983 U.S. military exercise that the Soviets thought was a first-strike maneuver. Mistakes and mishaps put us "just a shot from World War III."

Singer noted that several fictional scenes in "Ghost Fleet" have actually taken place between writing the book and publication, including a U.S. patrol airplane being ordered by China to change course.

He predicted that by 2030 China will gain sea power superiority over the U.S. and that a struggle over sea lanes could spark WWIII. Although Russians do not realize it, they are the junior partner "by far" in an alliance with China, he said. Complex and costly weapons designed to meet multiple missions, such as the nearly $100 million per plane F-35, could be defeated by quickly advancing Chinese weapons systems, he said.

Writing the novel with Cole, who has been a journalist, was helpful because "deadlines are meaningful to journalists." And working together proved a good way to avoid writer's block. Singer said he doubts that "Ghost Fleet" will ever be made into a movie because the entertainment industry has become too tied to Chinese interests.